The easy winter that Toronto experienced last year will not be repeated according the weather forecasts for 2016/2017. While there's some discrepancy in long term reports regarding whether or not southern Ontario will experience average or below average temperatures this winter, no one is calling for a mild season.
The Toronto region is expected to deal with high levels of snowfall thanks in part to the record setting heat we had this summer. While a warm summer doesn't typically have bearing on the winter temperature forecast, the above average temperatures of the Great Lakes means that lake effect snow will accompany the arrival of arctic air.
You can expect a lot of this type of snow during early winter in December and January.
As far as the general patterns go, climatologists predict a return to cold/classic winter temperatures partially because the strong El Niño event that influenced last year's weather is absent heading into this season.
"The current pattern has the look of a weak La Niña event, but it is unlikely to meet the criteria needed to be classified as such," writes Meteorologist Doug Gillham for the Weather Network. In fact, the current climatic patterns look more similar the ones that recently delivered us brutal winters rather than last year's balminess.
"Two features that stand out this fall are the large region of very warm water (relative to normal) west of British Columbia, and the warmer than normal water in the Atlantic Ocean east of Atlantic Canada and the U.S. East Coast. This bears some resemblance to the patterns during the falls of 2013 and 2014."
That's a scary thought given just how brutal those winters were in Toronto. Adding fuel to the fire is the Farmers' Almanac. Those who put faith in this mysterious forecasting system will be alarmed to hear that it predicts "exceptionally cold-if not downright frigid-winter weather will predominate over parts of the Rockies, Prairies, Great Lakes, Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritime Provinces."
Enjoy the remaining warmth while you can.
Photo by Hamish Grant in the blogTO Flickr pool.
by Derek Flack via blogTO
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